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SaaStr· Jason Lemkin·· 4 小时前精选AI 评分80

Anthropic IPO 员工持股约 $216B,另有 $160B 预留给未来招聘

Anthropic’s IPO Puts ~$216 Billion in Employee Hands. Another $160 Billion Is Reserved for the Next Hires.

文章要点
  • 1Anthropic 修订版 S-1 显示员工期权与 RSU 净值约 $216B,另有 $160B 预留给未来招聘
  • 2约 5300 名员工人均对应约 $41M,期权平均行权价 $2.91 与 $78 发行价相差 27 倍
  • 3文件披露收入运行率截至 10 月 31 日达 $81B,人均年化收入从 $1.4M 升至 $6.6M 以上
  • 4作者判断 B2B 与 AI 创业公司招聘将直面可变现的 ANT 股票,并预测 2027-2028 年出现离职创业潮
决策要点

这次 IPO 的实质不只是百亿美元募资,而是把 Anthropic 员工的纸面股权变成可变现的流动股票,为 AI 人才争夺立下私营公司难以匹配的定价基准。

  • 影响:招聘端报价将与随时可变现的 ANT 股票直接对比,普通期权包显得缩水;Anthropic 自身留人难度上升,熟悉规模化 AI 运作的员工将流出;离职者可能同时成为你的候选人、天使投资人和竞争对手。
  • 参考:可考虑先测算自家期权包与可变现公开股票的价值差距,再决定用职责范围、持股比例和决策速度补足;值得在锁定期结束前建立接触 Anthropic 离职人才的渠道。
  • 依据:股权与收入数据出自 Anthropic 修订版 S-1 文件及作者换算,$216B、$160B 为 $78 顶价口径;2027-2028 年离职创业潮为作者的 VC 个人预测。
正文 · 原文

Anthropic's employees hold ~$216B of equity at the IPO price. Another $160B is reserved for future hires.

5,300 employees. ~$41M each on average.

Every B2B founder now competes for talent against liquid ANT stock.https://t.co/lMJbuEJzEQ pic.twitter.com/T6hdBolVeU

— Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin (@jasonlk) November 10, 2026

Anthropic’s amended S-1 is out, and most of the coverage is about the deal size. 825 million shares at $70 to $78, ticker ANT, $64.4 billion at the top of the range, pricing next Wednesday night with trading on Thursday, Nov. 19. Add the $26 billion private placement from Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC and the greenshoe, and the raise tops $100 billion.

The employee equity number is larger than the IPO itself, and it will affect hiring across B2B + AI for years.

The Four Employee Equity Numbers at $78

Per the filing, as reported by ZeroHedge:

Bucket Shares Value at $78
Employee options (avg. strike $2.91) 1.77B ~$138B gross
Unvested RSUs 1.07B ~$84B
Issued since Sept. 30 (acquisitions + donation matching) 29M ~$2B
Reserved for future grants (2026 equity plan + ESPP) 2.05B ~$160B

The $138B on the options is gross value. Subtract the strike (1.77B × $2.91 = ~$5.2B) and the net is about $133B. Add the RSUs, and current option and RSU holders own about $216 billion of net value at the top of the range. At $70, the bottom of the range, it’s about $194 billion.

These figures cover employee equity awards only. The seven co-founders’ founder stock is ordinary common stock in the basic share count, and it’s on top of the $216B.

ANTHROPIC EMPLOYEE EQUITY AT THE $78 IPO PRICE

~5,300 Employees, ~$41 Million Average

Anthropic had approximately 5,300 employees as of 30 September 2026. $216B divided by 5,300 is about $41 million per employee.

The average overstates some things and understates others. Former employees still hold vested options, which pulls the real number for current staff down. And the distribution is very uneven. Headcount went from about 940 employees at the end of 2024 to roughly 5,300 by late September, so more than 80% of current employees joined in the last 21 months.

ANTHROPIC HEADCOUNT: 940 TO 5,300 IN 21 MONTHS

A $2.91 Strike Means Early Employees Hold the Options

A $2.91 average strike against a $78 price is a 27x spread. The options are about 96% in the money, so they’re worth almost the same as the shares themselves.

Options struck that low were granted when Anthropic was worth a small fraction of today’s price. Most of the $133B in net option value likely belongs to the pre-2025 cohort, roughly 1,000 people. For them the per-person number is far above $41 million, and many hold nine figures.

Later hires mostly hold RSUs. The $84B is spread across about 4,000+ people, which still averages around $20 million each.

The filing also reports approximately $32.3 billion of total unrecognized stock-based compensation expense related to RSUs. That’s the accounting cost at grant-date values, against an $84B market value for the same unvested RSUs. Employees received most of this stock at much lower prices. The filing says RSU expense will rise in the quarter the offering closes, so Q4 GAAP stock comp will be very large.

Seven Co-Founders Are Each Selling $264 Million

Each co-founder is selling 3.38 million shares in the IPO, about $264 million each at $78 and $1.85B total. Secondary is 23.6 million shares, 3% of the deal. The other 97% is primary capital going to the company.

I think founders should do this. Five years at this pace earns some liquidity, and $264M each is a small slice of what they keep. Founders with personal liquidity are less tempted by acquisition offers and secondary tenders, and can plan further out. Control stays put too: the founders will largely run Anthropic indefinitely via their Class F share.

A 3% secondary also tells IPO buyers the founders are keeping nearly all of their exposure.

Employee Stock Is 3.4x the IPO

The IPO sells $64.4B of stock. Employees hold about $216B, or 3.4x the offering and about 117x the founders’ secondary. All of them will want liquidity at some point.

The lockup terms weren’t in the coverage I saw. Whenever it ends, $216B of potential selling is sitting behind it, and how Anthropic manages employee sales will matter for the stock.

EMPLOYEE EQUITY IS 3.4X THE ENTIRE IPO

Taxes Could Take Close to Half

RSUs are taxed as ordinary income when they settle. Non-qualified option spreads are taxed as ordinary income at exercise. Most employees live in the Bay Area, where top federal plus California rates on ordinary income come close to 50%.

If most of the $216B is taxed that way, tens of billions go to federal and California tax over the next few years. Employees will net well below the headline figure.

$160 Billion Reserved for Future Hires

For other founders, this is the most important line in the filing.

The 2.05B shares reserved for future grants are worth ~$160B at $78, about 74% of what all current option and RSU holders own combined.

Anthropic now has public stock, a revenue run rate the filing puts at $81 billion as of Oct. 31 (up $10 billion in one month), and $160B to grant. It can offer senior engineers, GTM leaders and researchers liquid equity at a scale no private company can match. The S-1/A says competition for staff “is exceptionally intense and has escalated significantly in recent periods, especially in the San Francisco Bay Area”. The $160B pool is how Anthropic intends to compete.

Three Changes for Hiring at Every Other B2B + AI Startup

  • Candidates will compare your offer to liquid ANT stock. A Series B option grant with a 4-year vest and no liquidity looks small next to RSUs that settle into public shares. Startups will have to compete on scope, ownership and speed.
  • Anthropic’s retention gets harder. Thousands of employees can now afford to leave, and many will once they can sell. The filing says former employees are generally able to join competitors immediately.
  • The people who leave know how to run an AI company at scale. They built and sold a product doing $81B in run rate with ~5,300 people. Trailing twelve-month revenue per employee was over $6.6 million, up from $1.4 million a year earlier.

Expect a Wave of Ex-Anthropic Founders in 2027 and 2028

PayPal produced a founder and angel class from a few hundred people. Google and Facebook did it with thousands. Anthropic has ~5,300 people holding $216B, most of them AI engineers and operators, many under 35.

My bet as a VC is that a large group of ex-Anthropic founders will start companies in 2027 and 2028. Many will self-fund or raise their first round from former colleagues, and they’ll angel each other’s deals. They’ll be selective about VCs because they don’t need the money.

Founders will meet this group as hires, angels and competitors. VCs should build relationships with them before the lockup ends.

$216 Billion to Employees, $1.85 Billion to Founders, $160 Billion Still to Grant

Employee-linked equity in the filing totals about $384B at the top of the range: $216B net to current option and RSU holders, $2B in new issuance and $160B reserved. The founders’ stakes are separate.

The founders are selling $1.85B in the IPO. Employees hold more than 100x that in options and RSUs, and Anthropic has another $160B to grant to the people it hires next.

EMPLOYEE EQUITY AT IPO: ANTHROPIC VS. OTHER MEGA-IPOS

来源:SaaStr · saastr.com