AI 支出热潮出现裂痕,四大巨头今年资本开支超 7400 亿美元引发市场大跌
Cracks are emerging in the AI spending boom
- 1四大科技公司今年资本开支合计超 7400 亿美元,华尔街将其解读为 AI 基建支出
- 2Alphabet、Amazon、Meta 自由现金流转负,微软是唯一例外,录得正 186 亿美元
- 3纳斯达克周五跌 2.9%,Alphabet 周四创纪录大跌 12%,市值蒸发 5000 亿美元
- 4五家公司 2026 年合计举债 3260 亿美元、为去年三倍,Anthropic 已提交 IPO 申请
AI 基建支出正从信心信号变成风险信号,巨头靠利润加举债双轨支撑投入,市场开始按回报兑现能力重新定价。
- 影响:为这些巨头供应算力或依赖其云服务的企业,需把供应商现金流恶化和融资依赖纳入合作评估;Anthropic 上市若融资受限,可能更依赖超大规模云厂商与第三方获取算力;市场波动已波及算力租赁类公司的股价。
- 参考:可考虑把云与模型供应商的自由现金流、举债规模纳入供应商评估清单,作为续约谈判筹码;值得测算自家 AI 项目在算力价格或供给波动情景下的预算弹性;若业务依赖 Anthropic,可跟踪其 IPO 进展与算力保障条款。
- 依据:资本开支与自由现金流数据出自各公司财报官方口径;2026 年合计举债 3260 亿美元引自 S&P Global Market Intelligence;Blackstone 对 Anthropic 的评级警告为 Financial Times 报道。
Investors are getting nervous about AI infrastructure spending just as the Big Tech companies double down.
Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have outlined plans to spend more than $740 billion on capital expenditures this year, which Wall Street is reading as AI infrastructure spending, including data centers and chips.
Earlier in the AI boom, investors largely rewarded such big outlays, viewing them as a sign of confidence in the technology’s growth potential. But as we enter the fourth quarter, that enthusiasm seems to be giving way to concerns about negative free cash flow (spending more cash than a company brings in), mounting debt, and whether these enormous investments will ever generate enough returns.
The anxiety spilled across the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, and chip stocks took a drubbing, too: Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom more than 5%, and Qualcomm 11%. Alphabet, which plummeted 12% on Thursday, its worst day on record, wiping out $500 billion in market value, fell again.
A big part of the concern is that companies that used to have overflowing free cash flow from their core businesses are getting hit as AI threatens the economics of those businesses. Alphabet provided the clearest example of that this week. Google’s parent company reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in the third quarter, its second consecutive quarter in the red, even as quarterly capex grew to $51.4 billion. Alphabet expects to spend up to $205 billion this year, and expects that spending to keep rising in 2027.
Meanwhile, the wild success of AI Mode — Google’s AI-powered chatbot feature built directly into Search — is eating into the company’s money-maker. Google’s Search advertising business, which makes up roughly half of its revenue, saw growth slow to 12%, its weakest pace in five quarters. That leaves Google walking a tightrope. It’s spending billions on the AI technology that could undermine the search business that pays it.
Amazon is in a similar boat after reporting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion over the past 12 months, compared with $14.8 billion in positive free cash flow the year before. The company says it expects to spend $220 billion in capex this year. Even though revenue at its cloud business, AWS, grew 39%, Amazon’s stock tumbled 7% after it reported earnings Thursday.
Meta is also burning cash, reporting negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion in the third quarter as capex outpaced its operating cash. It’s guiding to as much as $145 billion in capex this year. The company noted that Muse, its new free personal AI agent, is a bit of a money pit (it’s “very compute-intensive to run,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said). But ad revenue grew 26%. Still, no amount of good news saved Meta from taking a 10% hit on its stock last week.
Microsoft was the only exception when it came to free cash flow — it recorded $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow in its latest quarter, with spending on capex at $45.2 billion, less than the $50 billion it projected. Microsoft said that wasn’t an intentional pullback from AI spending, blaming delays in capacity from third-party providers. As a result, shares of smaller companies that rent out AI computing power sank.
It’s worth noting that the money to pay for all of this AI infrastructure isn’t just coming from the Big Tech companies’ profits. It’s also showing up in stock and bond sales. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle raised a combined $326 billion in debt in 2026, triple the amount raised last year.
Demand for AI compute remains strong. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all saw gains in their cloud businesses. But investors are getting spooked by the costs of meeting that demand.
These muddied waters could complicate Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO. The AI company filed to go public earlier this week, and its future growth depends on securing enormous amounts of compute. Financial Times reported Friday that Blackstone has warned investors the company might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after its IPO, meaning it might end up being more reliant on the hyperscalers and third-parties to fund its infrastructure ambitions.
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Rebecca Bellan is a senior reporter at TechCrunch where she covers the business, policy, and emerging trends shaping artificial intelligence. Her work has also appeared in Forbes, Bloomberg, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, and other publications.
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来源:TechCrunch · AI · techcrunch.com