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Tomasz Tunguz 博客·· 2026-09-24AI 评分57

Thinking in Systems, Shipping in Loops

Thinking in Systems, Shipping in Loops

文章要点
  • 1DHH 在 Rails World 称手写代码对绝大多数公司已不再经济,年底前几乎覆盖所有领域和公司
  • 2Artemis 平台每行代码由智能体编写,工程师人均日合并 PR 从 1 月 2 个升至 8 月 16 个
  • 3SpaceXAI Grok 团队工程师 Lauren Tan 每月上生产 2000 个 PR,归因于验证循环而非模型
  • 4作者以 Donella Meadows 的韧性、自组织、层级三属性说明 AI 编码验证循环如何构建
决策要点

软件工程的核心从手写代码转向设计让 AI 正确产出的验证循环,工程师角色转向系统架构。

  • 影响:工程团队的人效基线需要按新数量级重算,排期与评估口径随之改变;验证环节(测试、审查智能体、生产可观测)成为新的工程投入方向;以手写代码为核心的岗位定义面临调整。
  • 参考:可考虑先记录团队当前人均交付速度作基线,选一条测试覆盖较全的流水线试点智能体编码;值得盘点现有测试、评审与可观测手段能否支撑智能体自检,再决定扩大范围。
  • 依据:数据来自作者所在 VC 被投公司 Artemis 与工程师自述,属单一来源;DHH 观点为大会演讲口径,暂无独立验证。
正文

In short : AI has removed the typing from software engineering & left the system design. DHH told Rails World that writing code by hand is no longer economically productive ; Artemis engineers merged 16 pull requests per day by August, & Lauren Tan ships 2,000 a month. The craft of fitting code together by hand is over ; what remains is designing the loop that decides whether the output is right. Donella Meadows's three properties of great system design, resilience, self-organization & hierarchy, describe how those loops are built. The architect's drafting table was always scarce because the foundation was scarce, not the talent.

“Writing code by hand is no longer an economically productive enterprise for the vast majority of programmers working at the vast majority of companies. That’s today. By the end of the year, it will be virtually all domains, virtually all programmers, virtually all companies.”

David Heinemeier Hansson, CTO of 37signals · Rails World, Austin · 23 September 2026

Software engineering have evolved to systems architecture. That was always the destination.

This is the new software engineering : designing the systems that let AI write code correctly at scale.

We see this in our portfolio companies. Artemis engineers merged 2 pull requests per day in January, 6 by May & 16 by August, 30,000 in eight months.1 Dan Shiebler, their CTO, describes the division of labor plainly : every line of the platform is written by agents, & the engineers design systems, set constraints & review outputs.2

Great design scales. Lauren Tan, an engineer on SpaceXAI’s Grok team, ships 2,000 pull requests a month to production, nearly one hundred a working day.3 Asked what makes that possible, she does not name a model but verification, loops that enable AI to validate its work.

A three-step numbered cycle drawn on graph paper

Dartmouth professor Donella Meadows argued that the most powerful places to intervene in a system are the least intuitive, & that people reliably find them & then turn them the wrong way.4

Three properties define great system design : resilience, self-organization & hierarchy.

Resilience is AI checking its own work, robustly, through tests, a reviewer agent & production observability rather than one gate. Self-organization is the loop learning, so a class of failure becomes a new skill the agent applies next time. Hierarchy is the layering of skills, tools & sandboxes into composable components that are reused once verified to work.

This work isn’t easy. Systems architecture never has been. It was my goal in 2005 as a Java software engineer just as much as it is today as we build out our agentic systems.5

“A new career as a professional maker of things. Yes, you will no longer be chiseling that code by hand, but you will be making amazing things. You will be steering intelligence.”6


  1. Artemis Security : 30,000 pull requests in eight months, an average of 16 merged per engineer per day in August 2026, up from 6 in May & 2 in January. ↩︎

  2. Dan Shiebler, co-founder & CTO, Artemis Security : “Every line of code in our platform is written by AI agents. Our engineers design systems, set constraints, and review outputs.” ↩︎

  3. The Complete Guide to pstack, Pt. 1, Lauren Tan, 1 September 2026 : “It’s allowed me to ship 2,000 PRs a month to production with high confidence.” Her verification-skill example is MIT licensed. The New Stack profiled the workflow in One engineer shipped 2,000 PRs a month to production, 19 September 2026. ↩︎

  4. Thinking in Systems : A Primer, Donella H. Meadows, 2008, chapter 6. ↩︎

  5. Three Years In, 10 July 2026 : building Theory as a technical organization, agents to map markets & research infrastructure to cover the ground of a firm several times our size. ↩︎

  6. Rails World 2026 Opening Keynote, David Heinemeier Hansson, Austin, 23 September 2026. He is co-owner & chief technology officer of 37signals. ↩︎

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来源:Tomasz Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com