Google DeepMind 创始人 Hassabis 将 AGI 预期缩短至两到三年
Deepmind founder Hassabis shortens AGI timeline from five to two to three years
- 1DeepMind 创始人 Hassabis 称 AGI 或在两到三年内实现，较今年早些时候三到五年的预估再度缩短
- 2他曾把 AGI 影响比作速度快十倍、规模十倍的工业革命，预估是向华尔街日报给出的
- 3他将 AGI 定义为具备人脑全部认知范围的系统，检验标准是仅用 1901 年前知识能否复现爱因斯坦 1905 年论文
- 4安全方面他提议设立政府监管、行业出资的机构在模型发布前审核，并警告坏监管比没有监管更糟
头部实验室负责人的 AGI 预估在一年内从三到五年缩至两到三年，属个人观点信号而非可验证的技术节点。
- 影响：若两三年窗口兑现，通用能力变化可能落在企业常规战略周期内；其发布前审核主张显示模型准入监管正在进入政策讨论；该口径由三到五年调整而来，波动本身构成规划风险。
- 参考：可考虑把通用模型能力跃升作为情景假设而非基线纳入规划，先算出核心业务对它的暴露程度；值得跟踪发布前审核等监管提案的进展。
- 依据：Hassabis 接受华尔街日报采访给出的个人预估，无独立验证；其监管审核机制为近期公开提议，尚属主张而非落地政策。
Oct 21, 2026
Demis Hassabis, Google Deepmind founder and Nobel laureate in chemistry, now believes AGI could arrive within two to three years. He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain.
That timeline keeps shrinking. Earlier this year, he said three to five years. "It's going to happen soon. My estimate keeps moving closer to the present," he told the Wall Street Journal. His litmus test is the "Einstein test": Could a system trained only on pre-1901 knowledge reproduce Einstein's 1905 papers?
Hassabis has compared AGI's impact to "10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed." Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, he's focused on Google's drug discovery AI spin-off Isomorphic Labs. On safety, he recently pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release. Bad regulation, he warns, is worse than none.
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