据称 OpenAI 年内将发布至少一款新模型,旗舰模型仍需对齐工作
OpenAI will reportedly ship at least one model this year but its flagship still needs alignment work
- 1The Information 引述员工称,OpenAI 年底前可能发布一到两个新模型,旗舰模型能否在内尚不确定
- 2新旗舰沿用 Astra 的循环 Transformer 技术,数学与编程表现更强、成本更低,但思维链安全监控因此更难
- 3Hugging Face 事件后,OpenAI 将约一成总算力转向对齐与安全,规模相当于数百兆瓦数据中心容量
- 4OpenAI 首席科学家 Jakub Pachocki 承认思维链监控正变得脆弱,并警告行业不要竞逐无可读推理的模型
旗舰模型的发布瓶颈已从能力转向对齐与安全评估,头部厂商的安全工序正成为前沿模型上市节奏的决定因素。
- 影响:依赖旗舰升级的规划不宜把年内发布当作确定前提;美国政府最多提前 30 天预访问新模型的安排可能拉长从完成到公开的周期;头部厂商把约一成算力投入安全,前沿模型的安全成本在抬升。
- 参考:可考虑把押注旗舰新能力的项目拆成可替换方案,先在现有模型上验证并保留切换余地;用模型推理支撑高风险决策的团队,值得评估思维链可读性在自家审查与审计流程里的作用。
- 依据:发布计划与算力转移比例出自 The Information 援引内部人士的单一报道;思维链监控趋弱为 OpenAI 首席科学家本人表态;泄露内容与 OpenAI 私下说明一致。
OpenAI is racing to finish its next flagship model, which uses the same looped transformer technique as Astra. The approach boosts math and coding performance but makes safety monitoring harder. Employees say one or two new models will likely ship by year's end.
OpenAI will likely release "one or two new models" before the end of the year, according to employees, though it's unclear whether "the major upgraded model" the company is currently working on will be among them. That's according to The Information, citing people familiar with the projects.
The new flagship could still be a ways off. The model needs alignment work so its goals match what OpenAI's researchers and customers expect. The company also has to shore up the testing infrastructure around the model before it can move forward.
After leadership is satisfied with safety evaluations, there's another hurdle. Under an executive order from President Trump governing evaluations of advanced AI systems, OpenAI agreed to give the US government access to new models up to 30 days before they go to outside partners and longer still before a public launch.
Looped transformers power both Astra and the next flagship
The new flagship also uses looped transformers, according to a person familiar with the situation. OpenAI already runs this technique in production, where it goes by "Recurrent Depth." It's central to how Astra works, the company's current top model. Instead of passing a token through the transformer layers once, the model loops it through the same layers multiple times before outputting the next word. That drives up performance on math and coding and brings down costs, since a smaller model can punch above its weight.
But the looping also moves some of the model's "thinking" out of readable text and into internal numerical representations that human reviewers can't inspect. That undermines chain-of-thought monitoring, where safety researchers trace a model's reasoning to spot bad behavior. OpenAI deliberately capped how many loops Astra runs to keep its chain of thought readable, The Information reports.
After the Hugging Face incident, OpenAI moved roughly ten percent of its total compute toward alignment and safety, according to a person familiar with the figures. The Information reports that amounts to hundreds of megawatts worth of data center capacity, though it's unclear how much was allocated to safety before or what the current split looks like. At market rates, the compute OpenAI shifted would cost billions of dollars a year to rent. AI researcher Noam Brown said in a mid-September podcast that about ten percent of his team also works on security and safety.
Microsoft accidentally leaks how OpenAI's looped inference works
How OpenAI actually uses this technique came to light through a slip-up at Microsoft. The major investor, which has access to OpenAI's intellectual property, published a technical write-up on GPT-6.1 Sol, a cheaper Astra alternative that OpenAI launched earlier this month.
In a now-deleted section, Microsoft described GPT-6.1 Sol as using "looping inference," where the model works through the same problem in multiple "passes" before producing an answer. GPT-6.1 Sol "uses the same base model weights as GPT-6 Sol with two inference passes instead of three," The Information quotes from a cached copy of the page.
A person with direct knowledge confirmed that the write-up matched what OpenAI had told Microsoft in private. Microsoft took the section down after realizing it wasn't meant to be public. Looped transformers remain a sensitive part of OpenAI's model development, both during training and at inference, The Information reports.
OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki has already acknowledged that chain-of-thought monitoring is growing "fragile" and "unfortunately trending in a negative direction." He also warned against an industry-wide race toward models without readable reasoning.
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