BCG 预计 2026 年企业与投资银行收入池达 1.1 万亿美元，称当前是增长黄金窗口

Corporate and investment banking (CIB) has never been stronger—and has never had less time to use that strength.

CIB revenue pools—including nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—are on track to reach approximately $1.1 trillion in 2026, a sixth straight record year, up 7.2% versus 2025 and well ahead of the roughly 5% five-year trend. (See Exhibit 1.) CIB has once again become a core engine within banking groups, accounting for roughly 46% of revenues for the top seven banks since 2020.

That growth will continue. Looking ahead, we expect that by 2030, the total CIB revenue pool will reach approximately $1.39 trillion, growing at roughly 5% per year. The revenue pool, however, will not be evenly distributed across regions, client segments, products, and operating models. (See Exhibit 2.) Nor will it be evenly distributed among banks. Share will go to those banks that make the necessary operating model changes and clear strategic decisions today.

Growth is rotating away from traditional corporates toward the owners of capital. Sponsors and hedge funds will grow 37% and more than 40%, respectively, cumulatively through 2030—far outpacing the traditional corporate wallet. Furthermore, the line between client and competitor is dissolving: NBFIs increasingly compete with banks, substitute for them, or become their most important clients—sometimes all within the same relationship. This is also reshaping how banks need to organize: sponsors and hedge funds increasingly buy advisory, financing, markets, and treasury together, rewarding banks that can connect products and balance sheet around the client rather than defending each mandate separately.

Growth will become more geographically differentiated. North America holds the largest pool and continues to widen its lead. Asia-Pacific is growing fastest, but through distinct market-level engines rather than a single regional story. Europe, the Middle East, and Africa diverge by country far more than the regional average suggests—making where to play a deliberate choice, not a given.

Technology will decide who captures these growth opportunities. Banks with AI-led operating models will be well placed to access their “fair” share of the expanding pool, while those still piloting individual tools will fall behind. We expect AI to free up as much as 40% of CIB full-time-equivalent capacity by 2030—concentrated in the most repetitive roles, particularly in middle- and back-office functions. This is not a net head count cut, but a redeployment toward judgment-intensive work.

Success requires a deliberate agenda, not just momentum. Banks face four strategic choices: which regions to prioritize, which client segments to deepen or expand, which products to build versus partner for, and how far to redesign the operating model around AI and data. There is no universally correct answer, but leaders will structure their response around three priorities: strengthening the core to fund the change; enabling future growth through coverage, financing, and platform capabilities; and deciding explicitly where to play rather than spreading thin across every region and client.

CIBs face a golden window: today’s strength can fund tomorrow’s position, but only if used now. Leaders are already locking in talent, platform standards, and client relationships that get harder to dislodge every year.

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