The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle
The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle
- 1作者判断 AI 竞争焦点不在最前沿旗舰，而在能力够用且价格可负担的中部市场
- 2五版维持 $5/$25 的 Opus 昨日首次降价，OpenAI 的 Luna 七月降 80% 后再降 50%
- 3开放模型在披露数据的网关承载多数 token 用量，价格较闭源混合价低 86%
- 4Fable 5.1 上线十二天仅占网关支出 3.7%，大客户前沿模型用量占比由 53% 降至 45%
模型定价竞争的实质发生在能力够用且企业买得起的中部市场，最贵旗舰实际承载的支出份额远低于外界预期。
- 影响：企业需求变化慢而智能单价快速下降，满足同等需求的模型档位会持续变便宜；旗舰模型占用量和支出份额都在收缩，按最强能力选型可能多付成本；价格频繁下调使既定预算和比价口径需要重算。
- 参考：可考虑按业务固定需求反推所需模型档位，定期用最新价格重算任务成本；值得盘点现有用量中对旗舰模型的依赖，并测算开源模型加微调能否覆盖同档需求。
- 依据：判断基于作者引用公开网关数据的分析，属单一分析者口径；降价幅度为厂商官方定价事实，用量占比数据未经独立审计。
In short : AI prices are collapsing, but the competition is not at the frontier. Anthropic held the Opus line at $5 & $25 across five releases while OpenAI cut Luna 80% then 50% again, & open models now run a majority of token volume at an 86% discount to closed models. The most capable model, Fable 5.1, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days. Demand is a normal distribution with a fat middle, & as intelligence per dollar explodes the tokens may shift to commodity. Whether that happens will determine the economics of the AI market.
Yesterday, Anthropic released a new model & cut its price. Ninety minutes later, OpenAI did the same.
Most business AI use is the messy middle: multi-step workflows that need a smart enough model at a price a company can afford. It is the most important part of the market today, & it is where the competition is fiercest. The price cuts are the evidence.
In June, Anthropic set the frontier price at $10 & $50 per million tokens with Fable 5. In July, OpenAI answered with GPT-5.6 Sol at $5 & $30, matching that capability at a third of the cost per task.
The Opus line had never moved. Opus 4.5, 4, 4.8 & 5 all listed at $5 & $25 per million tokens. Yesterday’s cut was the first.
It is even more extreme at the low end. OpenAI cut Luna by 80% in July, then cut it another 50% yesterday.
More than just closed source rivalry, open models deflate prices too. The generics on the AI grocery aisle run a majority of token volume on the gateways that publish data, at an 86% discount to the blended price of closed models.
Large customers pursue even greater savings with fine tuning. Cursor’s Composer 2 fine tuned Kimi K2.5, an open-weight base, cutting its overall cost 86% against its previous in-house model. Harvey did the same, cutting cost per cell 55% against Sonnet 5 while scoring higher than Fable 5.
But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast. Anthropic’s Fable 5.1, its most capable & most expensive model, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days. Its predecessor peaked at 13.2% when access was restored in July, then fell to 4.9% a month later when Opus 5 shipped at half the price. Among large corporate accounts, frontier models fell from 53% of token consumption in early August to 45% by September.
Demand for intelligence is not a pyramid with a small, wealthy peak paying for everything beneath it. It is a normal distribution with a fat middle. The middle buys intelligence per dollar.
Intelligence costs keep plummeting. What enterprises demand from AI does not change nearly as fast. So the tier that satisfies a fixed requirement keeps getting cheaper.
As intelligence per dollar explodes, the distribution of tokens may shift to commodity. Whether that happens will determine the economics of the AI market.
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来源：Tomasz Tunguz 博客 · tomtunguz.com